Serie A Matchday 4 Review: Lazio Drop Points, Juventus Stunned by Sassuolo

Serie A’s early-season script took its first real twist on Matchday 4. Lazio dropped points for the first time, Juventus were beaten by Sassuolo, and AC Milan stayed unbeaten — but with three fixtures of the round still to be played on Monday night, not one of the league’s three perfect starts has been decided yet.

The round is unusually stretched: seven matches were played between Friday and Sunday, and Torino vs Roma, Como vs Parma and Inter vs Udinese all kick off on Monday (16:30 and 18:45 UTC). Roma and Inter therefore go into Matchday 5 with a game in hand and the chance to overtake Lazio at the top. Every number below is taken from the live competition feed after Sunday’s fixtures.

Serie A Matchday 4 Results (Seven of Ten Played)

Verified Scorecard: Our Logged Serie A Calls on Matchday 4

We publish this before the analysis, because a prediction record only means something if the misses are listed next to the hits. FutebolAI logged one Serie A prediction for Matchday 4, published in the Lazio vs AC Milan preview on 10 September.

The model called a draw in a fixture where both sides arrived unbeaten and the previous two league meetings had finished 1-0. It got the outcome right and the scoreline wrong: the game produced four goals, not two. That is the honest shape of most predictions — direction is repeatable, exact scores are not.

Across the season to date, FutebolAI has published 44 logged predictions, of which 31 have been settled against real results. The model has identified the correct match outcome in 22 of those 31 — a hit rate of 71.0% — with five exact scorelines. Every call, including the misses, is reconciled publicly on our past predictions record and tracked live on the Prediction Accuracy Tracker.

Serie A Table After Matchday 4: The Top Ten

Roma and Inter have played one match fewer than the teams around them, which makes their nine points worth more than they look: win on Monday and either can take top spot on goal difference. Lazio’s ten points are the reward for a defence that has still conceded only three times.

Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus: The Result of the Round

Juventus arrived in Emilia-Romagna with six goals scored, one conceded and no defeats. They left with their first loss of the season and an eighth-place standing, five goals now conceded in four games. Sassuolo, who had taken four points from their opening three fixtures, produced the round’s highest-scoring game and moved level with Juventus on seven points.

The pattern matters more than the single result. Juventus’ early-season profile was built on control rather than volume — three wins by narrow margins — and Sunday was the first time that control broke down under a team willing to trade chances. It is one match, not a crisis, but it is the first evidence that the Bianconeri’s low-margin model has a failure mode.

Lazio 2-2 Milan: Two Unbeaten Records, Still No Separation

The round’s headline fixture produced the round’s most predictable outcome, even if the scoreline surprised. Both sides arrived unbeaten; both left unbeaten. Milan have now drawn twice and won twice, scoring seven and conceding four. Lazio have scored six and conceded three, and remain the only team in the division with a defence conceding at under a goal a game.

What the 2-2 does change is the expectation around each side. Milan have now taken seven goals from four matches without ever looking dominant, and their unbeaten start has been built on scoring in every game. Lazio have shown they can be held, but only by a team that scores twice against them — something only Milan and Udinese have managed so far this season.

Cagliari’s Quiet Climb, Fiorentina’s Fragility

The most efficient start in the league belongs to neither of the traditional powers. Cagliari have nine points from four games having scored only four goals, a +2 goal difference and, remarkably, no draws — three narrow wins and one narrow defeat. Their 2-1 win at Atalanta was their third single-goal result of the campaign.

At the other end, Fiorentina finally won, 4-2 at Venezia, but they have now conceded 11 goals in four matches — level with Venezia and Monza as the division’s leakiest defences. Venezia remain bottom with zero points from four, and Bologna, Genoa and Monza are all still searching for a first win.

Around Europe: The Weekend’s Other Rounds

The weekend’s most emphatic results came from the teams with the most to prove: Brighton’s five-goal win at promoted Coventry, Leipzig’s five against Hamburg, Freiburg’s five against Gladbach, and Barcelona’s four in a 4-2 win at Levante. In England, both Manchester clubs’ city rivals produced the two most-watched scorelines of the round: City won the derby 1-0 at Old Trafford, Arsenal won 2-0 at Sunderland.

AI Score Predictions: Tonight’s Three Serie A Fixtures

All three calls are logged in our prediction table with kickoff times and fixture IDs, and will be reconciled against the final scores within 7 days — the same process that produced the Lazio 2-2 Milan verdict above.

Where to Track Every Prediction

Tonight’s three results will be published to the prediction log as soon as they are settled, alongside every other call the model has made this season — the correct ones and the misses.

See Our Verified Prediction Record →

If you want the full Matchday 5 package — complete scoreline distributions for all ten fixtures, in-play probability curves and the model’s performance log — the 7-Day Trial gives you a full day of access for $0.99.

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Related Reading

• Lazio vs AC Milan: Matchday 4 Preview & AI Prediction — the 1-1 call that finished 2-2
• Serie A Standings Update — September 2026 — the table before this round
• Football Prediction Accuracy: How AI Stacks Up Against Bookies — what a 71% outcome hit rate means in practice
• Serie A 2025-26 Season Review — how last season’s top four was settled

Disclaimer: All AI predictions and score projections on FutebolAI are for entertainment and informational purposes only. They are generated by statistical models using historical and current-season data and do not constitute betting advice or a guarantee of results. Football outcomes are inherently uncertain. Please gamble responsibly where applicable.

Data sources: match results, standings and fixture details sourced from football-data.org (Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, season 2026-27), retrieved 14 September 2026. Prediction record sourced from FutebolAI’s internal prediction log (46 logged, 36 settled).